Analysis of Accident Risk Related Events and the Roles of Agents in Conflict Recognition and Resolution during a Runway Incursion Scenario

This paper extends a safety analysis based on a multi-agent dynamic risk model (DRM) of a future mix mode taxiing into position and hold (TIPH) operation. The TIPH operation aims at placing an aircraft on the mixed mode runway, ready for immediate takeoff as soon as takeoff clearance has been issued by the air traffic controller. In the previous safety analysis, accident risk results were obtained by Monte Carlo simulations of a multi-agent DRM for a particular scenario describing the conflict between an aircraft landing and an aircraft lining up while it should not. These risk assessment simulations and results obtained earlier do not provide insight into the underlying conflict detection and conflict recognition events that occur during the simulations. Therefore relevant events were defined and recorded in additional Monte Carlo simulations of the multi-agent DRM in different visibility conditions. An additional aim of the present research is an examination of the capabilities of agents to reduce the accident risk in the operation. This is studied in the DRM by placing agents out of monitoring or control loops in different visibility conditions. The results of the study make clear the extent to which each agent is able to reduce the accident risk and the complementarities between the agents’ roles in controlling the accident risk. Nomenclature: DRM = dynamic risk model TIPH = taxiing into position and hold